Applying System Dynamics to Scenario Based Software Project Management

Complex software development is a risky job. The number of unsuccessful projects largely surpasses the number of successful developments. Many studies relate this situation to non-technical problems, especially to inadequate project management. Scenario based software project management is an extension of the risk management paradigm that uses system dynamics abstract models to describe potential problems that can affect a software project. Dynamic models are also used to describe possible resolution strategies applicable to eliminate or reduce the potential problem impact over the software project. Scenarios are defined by integrating combinations of these models to a project model. The project model is based on Abdel-Hamid and Madnick’s software project model, which uses system dynamics notation to formulate several relations among development staff, software products, quality, project control and planning. The original model was adapted to allow a fine-grained description of project tasks, personnel abilities, and error propagation. The modified model also allows operational project monitoring. The proposed technique allows the development of a standard problem and resolution strategy model library, to be integrated to new and ongoing projects. These models are abstract, in the sense that they cannot be directly simulated. The simulation is only accomplished when they are integrated to the project model. Their variables and equations affect the project model behavior, replicating the impact promoted by the problems and resolution strategies that they describe. The system dynamics notation was expanded to allow the definition of the integration interface. Scenario analysis is a valuable tool to predict project results, such as cost, schedule and effort, in face of several combinations of problems and resolution actions. System dynamics complements the technique, describing nonlinear relationships and feedback loops among